Budget & Deficit
The Federal Deficit, Debt & Interest Costs
Tracking the annual federal deficit, the national debt trajectory, the CBO 10-year outlook, and the rising cost of servicing the debt. Sourced from CBO projections, OMB budget data, U.S. Treasury fiscal data, and FRED economic indicators.
Where the federal budget stands
The United States ran a $1.83 trillion deficit in FY2025 — about 5.77% of GDP — while net interest on the national debt crossed $1 trillion for the first time and the gross national debt approached $39 trillion. Mandatory programs and debt service now consume the large majority of every revenue dollar, leaving less room for discretionary priorities.
Key fiscal figures
Federal deficit
$1.77T
Most recent fiscal year · 2025-09-30
Deficit % of GDP
5.77%
FY2025 · Treasury / OMB
Net interest
~$970B
FY2025 · crossed $1T threshold
National debt
~$39T
Gross · Treasury Debt to the Penny
Sources: U.S. Treasury, CBO, OMB, FRED. The deficit figure above is rendered from the latest cached FRED FYFSD observation.
What this section covers
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The annual deficit
How much the government borrows each fiscal year, the deficit as a share of GDP, and the surplus years of 1998–2001 that have not returned since.
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CBO 10-year outlook
The Congressional Budget Office baseline projects deficits widening from $1.87 trillion in FY2025 to $2.54 trillion by FY2034.
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Interest & debt-to-GDP
Rising rates pushed net interest past $1 trillion, while debt held by the public is projected to climb from roughly 100% toward 131% of GDP.
The annual deficit over time
The chart below plots the annual federal surplus or deficit (FRED series FYFSD, in USD billions). The federal budget last recorded a surplus during FY1998–FY2001; every year since has run a deficit. Negative bars represent deficits; positive bars represent surpluses.
View data table
| Fiscal year | Surplus / deficit (USD billions) |
|---|---|
| FY2000 | +236 (surplus) |
| FY2009 | −1,413 |
| FY2020 | −3,132 |
| FY2024 | −1,833 |
| FY2025 | −1,830 (≈5.77% of GDP) |
Source: FRED FYFSD · U.S. Treasury / OMB. Chart renders the full annual series; table lists representative reference years.
CBO 10-year deficit outlook
The Congressional Budget Office's January 2025 baseline projects the annual deficit growing steadily over the coming decade, driven by mandatory spending growth and rising interest costs. Projections are subject to legislative changes.
View data table
| Fiscal year | Projected deficit (USD billions) |
|---|---|
| FY2025 | −1,865 |
| FY2026 | −1,740 |
| FY2027 | −1,800 |
| FY2028 | −1,870 |
| FY2029 | −1,940 |
| FY2030 | −2,020 |
| FY2031 | −2,130 |
| FY2032 | −2,240 |
| FY2033 | −2,380 |
| FY2034 | −2,540 |
Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, January 2025 Baseline.
Debt held by the public as % of GDP
Historical debt-to-GDP comes from FRED (series GFDEGDQ188S); the projected path follows the CBO January 2025 baseline through 2034. Debt held by the public is projected to rise from roughly 100% of GDP today toward 131% by 2034, crossing the 100% reference line that economists often flag as a sustainability marker. For more interactive deficit, debt, and interest-cost charts, see GovSpending.org.
View data table
| Calendar year | Debt held by public (% of GDP) |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 100% |
| 2026 | 102% |
| 2027 | 106% |
| 2028 | 109% |
| 2029 | 112% |
| 2030 | 116% |
| 2031 | 120% |
| 2032 | 123% |
| 2033 | 127% |
| 2034 | 131% |
Sources: FRED GFDEGDQ188S (historical) · CBO January 2025 baseline (projected).
Charts load economic series client-side from
/data/fred.json and the CBO baseline. Key figures above are rendered server-side
so they remain accessible without JavaScript. Gov Transparency Project is an independent,
non-partisan publication and is not affiliated with the U.S. government.
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Data sources
- Congressional Budget Office (CBO) — Budget and Economic Outlook, January 2025 baseline
- Office of Management & Budget (OMB) — federal budget data
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data — Debt to the Penny
- FRED — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FYFSD, FYFSGDA188S, FYOIGDA188S, GFDEGDQ188S)
govtransparencyproject.org
Government Transparency Project is an independent, non-governmental publication. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by the U.S. government or any federal agency. Data is sourced from public APIs (FRED (Federal Reserve), U.S. Treasury, Congress.gov, Bureau of Labor Statistics).
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