Independent analysis of federal spending, congressional voting, economic data, regulatory activity, and budget policy. Sourced from public government data.
Treasury data shows debt above $39 trillion, a 3.327% average interest rate on interest-bearing debt, and record bill auction sizes that keep rollover risk elevated.
Read Analysis →First-half FY2026 borrowing ran below last year's pace, but total debt remained near $39T and net interest outlays stayed close to $1T on official data.
Read Analysis →A 6-3 SCOTUS ruling voided IEEPA tariffs, requiring $166B in refunds from 330,000+ businesses. The administration pivoted to Section 122 — a narrower statute with a hard 150-day clock. Here's what changed and what's next.
Read Analysis →The U.S. trade deficit swung $81B in a year. GDP near-stalled at 0.7% in Q4 2025. Consumer sentiment sits at 56.6. Here's what the official numbers actually reveal when examined in sequence.
Read Analysis →The Treasury's own Statement of Net Cost reveals which agencies account for the overwhelming share of federal expenditure — and how $970 billion in interest now dwarfs the entire visible discretionary government.
Read Analysis →Federal interest costs hit $970 billion in FY2025—up 10% in one year—while labor force participation fell to 62.0%. The data reveals a widening gap between the tax base and federal debt service.
Read Analysis →USTR opened simultaneous Section 301 investigations targeting manufacturing overcapacity in 16 economies and forced labor failures in 60 — the broadest simultaneous deployment of U.S. trade law in modern history.
Read Analysis →Michigan sentiment fell to 56.4 in January 2026 — a 21% drop from a year ago — while GDP growth stalled at 0.7% in Q4 2025. Five FRED data series document the divergence between macro stability and consumer-side stress.
Read Analysis →The U.S. Treasury set a record $110 billion 4-week bill auction in October 2025 while average debt interest rates climbed to 3.32% — more than double 2021 levels. With debt at $39T and 122.5% of GDP, record auction volumes are the permanent operating condition of U.S. fiscal policy.
Read Analysis →The federal government ran a $1.83 trillion deficit in FY2025 — 5.77% of GDP — with mandatory programs and $970B in interest now consuming 86 cents of every revenue dollar. Discretionary spending is being mathematically compressed.
Read Analysis →The national debt crossed $39 trillion on March 19, 2026, having added $1.14 trillion in just 169 days of FY2026. At $6.73 billion added every day, the annualized borrowing pace has reached $2.46 trillion — with $3.5 billion in daily interest cost.
Read Analysis →Federal initial jobless claims surged to 230,000 in late January 2026 — the largest non-weather spike since early 2024 — as federal workforce reductions reached peak pace. The BLS numbers don't theorize. They count.
Read Analysis →The Senate has failed four cloture votes on H.R. 7147 — each falling roughly 9 votes short of the 60-vote threshold. After 34 days, 366 TSA officers resigned and a recess deadline looms March 30.
Read Analysis →The federal government ran a $1 trillion deficit in the first five months of FY2026, CBO reports, with $308 billion borrowed in February alone. CBO projects a $1.9 trillion full-year gap as revenues rise but mandatory spending continues to outpace receipts.
Read Analysis →A GAO audit covering February through August 2025 found the CFPB issued stop-work orders, cut 88% of its workforce, dismissed 17 enforcement cases, and rescinded 70 guidance documents — while declining to cooperate with the audit.
Read Analysis →The CBO's post-enactment analysis of Public Law 119-21 raises the deficit impact to $3.4 trillion — a full trillion above early estimates. We document both chambers' one-vote margins and the updated fiscal cost.
Read Analysis →In FY2025, the federal government spent $7.0 trillion — but three agencies alone consumed nearly two-thirds. GTP maps every dollar by department, from HHS's $1.9T dominance to the rising $1T+ interest bill.
Read Analysis →In FY2025, federal net interest on the national debt crossed $1 trillion for the first time — now the second-largest budget line item, ahead of defense spending, with CBO projecting $2.1 trillion annually by 2036.
Read Analysis →The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline reveals an accelerating fiscal trajectory — annual deficits roughly double by 2036 as federal debt tracks toward a peacetime record as a share of the economy.
Read Analysis →H.R. 1 passed the House by a single vote and cleared the Senate only when the Vice President broke a 50–50 deadlock. CBO projects the law adds $2.4 trillion to the national deficit through 2034.
Read Analysis →Real GDP expanded just 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3. With core PCE inflation at 3.0% and unemployment rising to 4.4%, BEA data presents a mixed picture heading into 2026.
Read Analysis →Real GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% in Q3 to 0.7% in Q4 2025 — an 84% quarterly deceleration. Federal data shows unemployment at 4.4%, CPI near zero, and the personal saving rate at a multi-year low.
Read Analysis →A breakdown of every major federal spending category, from Social Security to defense, with year-over-year comparisons.
An accountability review of key roll call votes in the current session, cross-referenced with campaign finance data.
A data-driven analysis of Federal Reserve policy signals using FRED economic indicators.
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